Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 4.902909 5.799391 6.791463 7.967647 9.320800 10.825418 12.621651
2025-05-25 3.292082 4.421066 5.811559 7.635870 9.950306 12.771270 16.450259
2025-06-01 2.415354 3.620776 5.247410 7.569572 10.759719 14.942829 20.787870
2025-06-08 1.837021 3.037076 4.791723 7.485463 11.443163 16.956620 25.106258
2025-06-15 1.551734 2.790725 4.730037 7.893509 12.804860 19.990203 31.098895
2025-06-22 1.266686 2.469136 4.476571 7.941629 13.600655 22.255650 36.186220
2025-06-29 1.041801 2.191843 4.231393 7.940737 14.285105 24.384419 41.234530
2025-07-06 0.862320 1.952112 3.998980 7.908473 14.887276 26.411213 46.275861
2025-07-13 0.803366 1.931354 4.151168 8.561182 16.705719 30.548633 55.027311
2025-07-20 0.710376 1.818290 4.106331 8.838598 17.884546 33.712233 62.422594
2025-07-27 0.637655 1.732144 4.097302 9.175764 19.196693 37.201964 70.627248
2025-08-03 0.549063 1.588108 3.942524 9.197890 19.911447 39.688854 77.274759
2025-08-10 0.447467 1.390025 3.642993 8.893996 19.990595 41.090456 82.224989
2025-08-17 0.356233 1.193374 3.309330 8.466279 19.772534 41.926414 86.239736
2025-08-24 0.299806 1.075939 3.139112 8.371880 20.223449 44.065239 92.834091
2025-08-31 0.252600 0.971062 2.978492 8.272268 20.645806 46.176135 99.529017
2025-09-07 0.235031 0.953760 3.041445 8.715115 22.300662 50.877510 111.573491
2025-09-14 0.204803 0.885197 2.952183 8.766627 23.076639 53.840592 120.385189
2025-09-21 0.177207 0.816623 2.848810 8.765292 23.727265 56.589653 128.954315
2025-09-28 0.152664 0.750692 2.739292 8.729949 24.290420 59.192509 137.398888
2025-10-05 0.150397 0.771339 2.897095 9.442031 26.733332 66.035196 155.070264
2025-10-12 0.137954 0.746405 2.907269 9.744519 28.194446 70.825414 168.719946
2025-10-19 0.128041 0.729021 2.938712 10.112046 29.855002 76.176342 183.888189